What was lost when we lost 2020 Nationals

Those athletes started a revolution. And they deserved better than what they got.

Cheat-sheet

ASP Time: ASP (Approved Selection Process) time is a benchmark for invitations to Nationals and, in Women's events, is defined as the fastest time achieved by the 20th fastest athlete in the event during the regular season. For men's events, the ASP time is determined similarly, but it is based on the regular season performance of the 16th fastest athlete instead. 

Regular Season: Any competitive swim in any meet before Nationals.

A season with no national championship

In our blog’s two-year history, we've seldom discussed the 2019-20 season. Although 2019-20 was nearly a complete season, 2020 Nationals were cancelled due to COVID. Given that Nationals typically showcase a disproportionate number of the season's fastest swims, we excluded the 2019-20 season from various metrics.

However, our current interest in ASP time trends¹, which are recorded before Nationals, made the 2019-20 season relevant. The 2019-20 regular season was comprehensive, including a full range of meets and conference championships. So we added it in.

And we saw something we had never noticed before.

But to talk about 2019-20, first we have to pass back through the 2022 Nationals, the fastest Nationals in Division III history.

2022: The fastest Nationals in Division III history

The narrative surrounding the 2022 Nationals is well-established. They took place after a two-year hiatus.² In response to the unique circumstances around COVID, the NCAA gave swimmers an extra year of eligibility. This extension and the prevalence of gap years resulted in a much older, faster group of athletes at the 2022 Nationals.³ In addition, a highly successful group of 1st-year swimmers came into Division III.⁴

Here is an account of the Division III records that fell in three days at the 2022 Nationals.

Women

• 200 IM - Crile Hart and Jordyn Wentzel⁵

• 200 Medley Relay - Kenyon (Smith, Fadely, Hart, Mirus) followed by Emory (Jungers, Bates, Leone, Maki)

• 200 Free Relay - Kenyon (White, Geboy, Hart, Mirus)

• 400 Medley Relay - Kenyon (Smith, Fadely, Hart, Mirus)

• 200 Breast - Jordyn Wentzel

Men

• 100 Back - Jack Wadsworth

• 200 Back - Tanner Filion followed by Yurii Kosian

• 800 Free Relay - Emory (Pema, D'Amore, Hamilton, Goudie)

• 200 Fly - Frank Applebaum

Not only did all these records fall,⁶ but on three occasions they fell twice in one event. 2022 Nationals was freakishly fast, like an explosion of pent-up energy and talent.

But in retrospect, the extraordinary 2022 Nationals might have seemed less anomalous had the 2020 Nationals taken place as planned. Because the 2020 Nationals were shaping up to be unprecedented in their own right.

2019-20 was, at the time, the fastest regular season in D3 history

We never really had a great reason for excluding the 2019-20 season from our data. And when we started looking at it - as a potential data point for ASP times - the 2019-20 season turned out to be not just usable. It was, in fact, the fastest regular season in the history of Division III, unsurpassed until the (crazy) 2021-22 season.

And while that might seem obvious and unremarkable - don’t we expect the entire division to get faster every year (thus making 2020 inevitably faster than every season before)? - that isn't how it really works.

Halting progress and uneven rates of change

The ASP time does not have a linear progression toward faster times. On both the Men's and Women’s sides there are visible breaks in this progress.⁷

There is also the issue of rate of change in the ASP. Of special interest are those seasons where the rate of change is unusual, either because the change reverses (the ASP gets slower overall) or because the rate of change accelerates.

On the Women's side, the 2019-20 season had the greatest rate of ASP time improvement in individual events of any season before it or since. On the Men's side the rate of change was less dramatic, but the actual ASP time in nearly every Men’s event in 2019-20 was faster than it had ever been.⁸ In 2019-20, Division III was witnessing an unprecedented increase in speed.

And then the lights went off.

Suffering all around

Obviously, so many people around the world lost everything during COVID, and this stupid little blog has nothing to add to what has already been said about this global tragedy.

The quarantine, cancellations, disruptions, and distress had a huge impact on Division III swimmers. The extension of an extra year of eligibility for those who lost the following (2020-21) season, though insufficient for what was lost, is something this blog appreciates from the NCAA.

Still, if you were a Senior gearing up for Nationals in the Winter/Spring of 2020, you got screwed. It was no one’s fault, and nothing could fix it.

Remembering what might have been

As we said, it has been our practice to push the 2019-20 season to the side, as something both unfortunate and incapable of informing our understanding of the modern competitive history of Division III swimming.⁹

We were wrong. 2019-20 started the trends that continue today. Here are some of the athletes who helped usher in this new age of D3 swimming and whose remarkable college careers ended - in heartbreaking fashion - in March, 2020.¹⁰

Men

Byrne Litschgi: Chicago's Byrne Litschgi tore it up in the Fall of 2019 at the 11th Annual Phoenix Fall Class. His 46.66 in 100 BK and 1:45.44 in 200 BK were the third best swims in those events in Division III regular-season history. His last ever NCAA meet was the UAA Championships, Feb 12–15, 2020.

Bebe Wang and Mitch Williams: Early in the 2019-20 season, Denison's Bebe Wang swam the 5th fastest regular season 200 IM in D3 history and the seventh fastest 200 Back.

His teammate Mitch Williams posted the 6th fastest regular season 200 Fly at the North Coast Athletic Conference Championships (at Denison, of course), on Feb. 12–15, 2020. For both men, NCACs was their last college meet.

Connor Rumpit: Kenyon's Connor Rumpit's 2019-20 season involved him swimming the 6th fastest 500 Free in D3 regular season history. At the 2020 NCAC championship he won the Men's 500 Free and the 1650. That was his last meet.

Nay Oliveira: Linfield's Nay Oliveira swam a 47.81 100 Fly that season, 7th best in D3's regular season history. His last NCAA meet was Northwest Conference Championships, Feb 13–16, 2020, where he won Men's 100 Fly and 200 IM.

Bouke Edskes and Sam Ubellacker: MIT's Bouke Edskes swam the 4th fastest 200 Fly in D3 regular season history (Dec. 7-8, 2019), as well as the 6th fastest 100 Fly and the 6th fastest 400 IM.

In that same weekend, his teammate Sam Ubellacker won 50 Free with a time that was the 5th fastest in regular season history. Both athletes swam their last college meet at the NEWMAC championships, Feb 20-23, 2020.

Giorgio Delgrosso: NYU's Giorgio Delgrosso won both 100 Breast and 200 Breast at the 2020 UAAs. His 200 Breast time was 2nd overall in D3 regular season history, behind only Andrew Wilson.¹¹ His 100 Breast swim took place on the same day as Collin Miller’s (more on him below), and was the 3rd best regular season 100 Breast in Division III history. 2020 UAAs was Mr. Delgrosso’s last college meet.

Roger Gu: Roger Gu of Tufts swam the 6th fastest 50 Free in regular season history at a dual meet in January of 2020. At the NESCAC championship on Feb. 23, 2020 he won the 100 Free with a time that was 5th best in D3 regular season history.¹² That was the last time he swam in college.

Nolan Monahan: Nolan Monahan of United States Merchant Marine Institute won 100 Breast (8th best in regular season history) and 200 Breast (9th best) on Feb. 22 and 23, 2020 at the Metropolitan Championships. That was the last time he raced in college.

Collin Miller: At the 2020 WIAC Championship (Feb. 14, 2020), UW-Eau Claire's Collin Miller swam 100 Breast in 52.38. It was one of the finest swims in the history of Division III, regular season or otherwise. He also won the 200 Breast (6th best ever in the regular season). When the meet ended, though he could not have known it, the college career of one of the best swimmers in the history of Division III was over.

Women

Becca Erwin: On Feb. 14, 2020 at the Southern Athletic Associations conference championship, Birmingham-Southern's Becca Erwin won 200 Free in 1:48.25. That time would have been good enough for a silver medal at 2023 Nationals. It was the fifth fastest time in regular season history. Her swims in 100 Free and 200 IM would also have earned her 2023 Nationals invites (easily). When the SAA Championships ended on Feb. 15, 2020, Ms. Erwin's college career was over.

Gabriella Nutter and KT Kustritz: At the 2020 NCAC championships, Denison's Gabriella Nutter swam the lead leg of Denison's event-winning 400 Free Relay. Her time was 49.81, which was the 5th fastest regular season 100 Free in D3 history. That was an intimidating relay team. Their event-winning time was 3:20.41, which would have won Nationals in 2022 and 2023. Overall, that was the third fastest 400 Free Relay team in all of Division III history, and the fastest regular season 400 Free Relay ever.

Denison's KT Kustritz, who swam the anchor leg of that relay, was one of the best swimmers in Division III history. Her 100 Breast record from March 23, 2018 still stands. SwimCloud ranked her 2nd in all of Division III in 2017-18, 1st in 2018-19, and in her last season, 2019-20, SwimCloud had her third behind only Crile Hart and Jordyn Wentzel (in 4th place, was Honore Collins, more below). Though fly wasn't really her event, Ms. Kustritz went to Kenyon's Fast Chance meet on Feb. 22, 2020 and posted a 54.84 in 100 Fly. That would have been an A Final time at 2023 Nationals. As it was, Kenyon's perfunctory Fast Chance Invitational was her last college meet.

Honore Collins: Honore Collins of NYU stands beside Ms. Kustritz in the pantheon of Division III swimming. When Crile Hart and Jordyn Wentzel (both) broke the 200 IM record at 2022 Nationals, it was Ms. Collins’ record that they broke. Ms. Collins also has the third fastest time (ever) in 400 IM. She routinely posted 200 Fly and 100 Free times that would be slam-dunk Nationals invite times to this day. At the UAA Championships on Feb. 12–15, 2020 she won 200 Fly, 200 IM, and 400 IM. On Feb. 22, she swam a 500 Free at the NYU Last Chance Meet in New York. It was an event she rarely swam. Who knows why she even bothered. Maybe she was bored.

It was, of course, her last ever college swim.

What COVID changed, and didn’t change

A recent article in Swimming World suggested that COVID and its aftermath changed the course of Division III swimming.

'Swimming in NCAA Division III is in the early stages of a new era, and several factors have boosted the division…The COVID-19 pandemic changed the course of swimming for several years...the competition is increasing as the sport gets faster and swimmers are opting for Division III in many cases...With the transfer portal opening more doors, the post-pandemic years could be the start of a new era in Division III swimming.'

It is worth a read, but we disagree with the premise.¹³

The evidence presented here does not support the statement that COVID and its aftermath radically changed the direction of post-pandemic Division III swimming, pulling in more talent and driving faster swims. That uptick in speed was evident in the regular season of 2019-20.

And the record times we saw in 2022 and 2023 are not traceable to an influx of former Division I swimmers choosing to swim Division III. Of the 12 new records set in 2021-22 and 2022-23, none were set by Division I transfers. They were set by stars who chose Division III over Division I long before the pandemic, like Crile Hart, Jordyn Wentzel and Taylor Leone, or by athletes with an only-in-D3-would-this-even-be-possible story, like Tanner Filion.

So, to say that D3 swimming has become something different post-COVID does not fit with what we know about 2019-20, or the biographies of the athletes setting records over the last two seasons. Long before COVID, D3 swimming was becoming freakishly fast, and the rate of change was accelerating. This does not present us with an easy narrative, but the evidence is clear and plentiful.

When we lost 2020 Nationals, we lost the capstone to the most remarkable season - up to that point - in the history of Division III swimming. And because we did not have Nationals, it made it easier for us to lose touch with some performances that would otherwise be legendary.

Too many of these athletes were never given their due. They shaped the future of D3 swimming in that unprecedented 2019-20 season, and then the floor dropped out. So they did the only reasonable thing - they moved on with their lives, knowing that they lost their last chance to end their Division III career standing on a podium, holding aloft an NCAA trophy for all to see.

1. We set out to predict invite times at this year’s Nationals. Our idea was to not bother tracking down every psych sheet but to instead pick a set point in swimmer rankings and follow that set point.

We chose that set-point based on the NCAA’s Approved Selection Process (ASP) for National invitations. The ASP states that the NCAA will offer invitations to the fastest 20 athletes in Women’s events and the fastest 16 athletes in Men’s events. We will be taking a look at movement of ASP times in a future post.

2. And because the academic options - like on-campus online classes - were not appealing.

3. The presence of older swimmers led to a significant number of them hitting multiple qualifying times, creating some unique situations, like Women’s individual events with 25-28 invited athletes.

If you care this is a function of the NCAA's global cap on the number of athletes invited. For swimming in Women's events , that number is now 290. So the NCAA wants to invite 290 athletes for Women's events. No more, but also, hopefully no fewer either.

Since so many of the athletes invited were under the invite time for multiple events, that meant the events filled up faster. As the NCAA approached their global invite cap of 290 they found that there were far more invited swimmers per event than any time in D3 Nationals history.

4. Taryn Wisner and Kristin Cornish were both First-years in 2022 and they finished 1-2 in Women's 500 Free. First-years Sophia Verkleeren and Kate Augustyn A-Finaled in 200 IM, and are now both established stars. Bowdoin First-year Ella Riccio had a breakout year in 2022 and A Finaled in 50 Free. She was joined there by Pomona-Pitzer First-year Avery Turney. And that was just the Women, on just the first day of the 2022 Nationals.

5. Ms. Hart holds the new record, but Ms. Wentzel also broke the existing record which was set by NYU’s Honore Collins in 2018.

6. Plus there were meet records set in 100 Fly (Jesse Ssengonzi and David Fitch) and 200 Free (Jamie Lovette, Jaden Luo, Nicholas Goudie).

7. In the 2016 season, overall, the ASP time (the fastest time by the 16th fastest athlete in an event) was slower than in the 2015 season, even slower than the in 2014 season. And the ASP in 2023 was slower - overall - than the ASP in 2022. On the Women's side, there are multiple seasons where the ASP was slower than the season before.

8. The 2019-20 season rate of change in the ASP for Men's events was greater than in any year since 2014, though this rate of change was then surpassed again in 2022.

And in more than half of the 13 individual events in which the NCAA offers a Nationals invites, the best time of the 20th athlete was faster than at any time in the preceding decade. On the Men's side, this was even more extreme. In 2020, in 12 of the 13 individual events in which the NCAA offers invites to Nationals, the 16th fastest time was the fastest it had ever been.

9. And, honestly, we heard no complaints from our four or five readers.

10. If for example we say Cheran De Silva in 2020 swam the fastest ever ASP time in Men's 100 FL that means if there was ever a faster time in that event it a) took place at Nationals (in any year in which Nationals was held) or b) was surpassed after Division III swimming resumed post-covid (2021-22).

Our point is that from the perspective of the 2019-20 regular season, before it became clear that there would be no Nationals that year, Division III swimming had never looked so fast. These athletes were posting some of the fastest regular season swims in D3 history. And the extraordinary athletes we are about to mention would all have been top contenders for national titles at the ill-fated Nationals set for March of 2020.

11. His 200 Breast time still places him as the 4th fastest Men’s 200 Breast athlete in Division III history (including swims at Nationals).

12. Based on his 50 Free time at the 2019 Nationals (19.49), Roger Gu is, to this day, the 4th fastest Men’s 50 Free athlete in the history of Division III swimming.

13. We are pleased that Greta Gidley got some much deserved attention. She is awesome.