Anyone happen to have a comparison of psych sheet scoring to the actual meet outcomes for NCAAs over the last couple of years? This could be a very tight context on the women's side but all that really matters is how they swim. Like Ed I also looked at the swimmers in the 17-25 spots and NYU has 10 versus 5 for Kenyon and 3 for MIT respectively across all individual events. MM's comment is so true as well - the divers could get a lot of attention this year.
Thanks for the link. I think that article sums up the situation quite well and this year the margins are nowhere near enough to account for the variability in swims that will come. Could be a very exciting meet on the women's side.
Hey Mike, I know you are talking about women's events, just clarifying that.
Here's another way to look at it. Let's do a Monte Carlo simulation of the outcome, with an assumption of significant variability in performance over the championship weekend—let’s say a ±30% swing from the psych sheet projections.
Denison Men’s Victory is Overwhelmingly Likely
In 10,000 runs of the simulation, Denison wins 9,525 times. Emory wins 298 times, NYU wins 177 times. And that's it.
Kenyon Women Face a Much Tighter Battle
Applying the same ±30% variability to the women’s meet, the championship picture looks far less certain. In 10,000 simulations, the distribution of victories across teams is as follows:
Kenyon – 3,356 wins
MIT – 2,711 wins
NYU – 2,456 wins
Emory – 1,158 wins
Denison – 302 wins
Williams – 17 wins
Before accounting for diving results—an additional factor that could further shift the balance—Kenyon does not win the majority of simulations. This suggests a highly competitive race, where multiple teams have a legitimate shot at the title.
Oh the irony that the winner of a swimming competition is contingent on the performance of a separate team of people in an unrelated sport. That makes as much sense as the d3 A qualifying time. 🙄
Are you implying that diving is a separate sport? In our world they all make up one team. That’s why they are called swim and dive teams and not just swimming. I for one can’t wait to see how things shake out in Greensboro for our swimmers AND divers.
I think it is reasonable to say that diving is a separate sport. Of course, scoring is combined for team competitions at the high school and NCAA levels. That seems reasonable, just as keeping them separate would also seem reasonable. In team scoring at FINA World Championships, the ISL, and Pan Pax diving is not included in team scoring. At the Olympics, of course, TeamUSA counts swimming medals and diving medals as different categories, as separate as volleyball and canoe slalom.
That said, we see successful D3 teams taking steps to emphasize that they are one team, competing in two different sports, with a common fate.
I’m excited to watch the very first event, the women’s 500 free. This could be impactful on the overall team race, projected to be extremely tight. Kenyon, NYU, and Emory all have 3 swimmers seeded in scoring position, in the top 16. NYU has 3 more invited swimmers seeded just outside of the top 16, and Emory also has another invited swimmer, just outside the top 16. At NCAAs this year, it looks like every single point will be extremely important!
Given the looming potential roster limit fallout through the House Settlement and seeing the incredible advantage here for the Big Red, I am preparing for the eventual diving arms race everywhere. For the diving apocalypse, I plan on bunkering down with no supplies other than shammy towels and orange slices.
Anyone happen to have a comparison of psych sheet scoring to the actual meet outcomes for NCAAs over the last couple of years? This could be a very tight context on the women's side but all that really matters is how they swim. Like Ed I also looked at the swimmers in the 17-25 spots and NYU has 10 versus 5 for Kenyon and 3 for MIT respectively across all individual events. MM's comment is so true as well - the divers could get a lot of attention this year.
An anecdotal approach:
https://open.substack.com/pub/d3so/p/chalk
Thanks for the link. I think that article sums up the situation quite well and this year the margins are nowhere near enough to account for the variability in swims that will come. Could be a very exciting meet on the women's side.
I would expect random variability that far exceeds the margins separating the women’s teams in the psych sheet analysis.
Found the psych sheet scoring from last year, https://swimswam.com/scoring-the-2024-ncaa-division-iii-psych-sheets/ The results varied quite a bit from prediction. While directionally correct no way would I call a team winner this year.
Hey Mike, I know you are talking about women's events, just clarifying that.
Here's another way to look at it. Let's do a Monte Carlo simulation of the outcome, with an assumption of significant variability in performance over the championship weekend—let’s say a ±30% swing from the psych sheet projections.
Denison Men’s Victory is Overwhelmingly Likely
In 10,000 runs of the simulation, Denison wins 9,525 times. Emory wins 298 times, NYU wins 177 times. And that's it.
Kenyon Women Face a Much Tighter Battle
Applying the same ±30% variability to the women’s meet, the championship picture looks far less certain. In 10,000 simulations, the distribution of victories across teams is as follows:
Kenyon – 3,356 wins
MIT – 2,711 wins
NYU – 2,456 wins
Emory – 1,158 wins
Denison – 302 wins
Williams – 17 wins
Before accounting for diving results—an additional factor that could further shift the balance—Kenyon does not win the majority of simulations. This suggests a highly competitive race, where multiple teams have a legitimate shot at the title.
Oh the irony that the winner of a swimming competition is contingent on the performance of a separate team of people in an unrelated sport. That makes as much sense as the d3 A qualifying time. 🙄
Are you implying that diving is a separate sport? In our world they all make up one team. That’s why they are called swim and dive teams and not just swimming. I for one can’t wait to see how things shake out in Greensboro for our swimmers AND divers.
I think it is reasonable to say that diving is a separate sport. Of course, scoring is combined for team competitions at the high school and NCAA levels. That seems reasonable, just as keeping them separate would also seem reasonable. In team scoring at FINA World Championships, the ISL, and Pan Pax diving is not included in team scoring. At the Olympics, of course, TeamUSA counts swimming medals and diving medals as different categories, as separate as volleyball and canoe slalom.
That said, we see successful D3 teams taking steps to emphasize that they are one team, competing in two different sports, with a common fate.
I’m excited to watch the very first event, the women’s 500 free. This could be impactful on the overall team race, projected to be extremely tight. Kenyon, NYU, and Emory all have 3 swimmers seeded in scoring position, in the top 16. NYU has 3 more invited swimmers seeded just outside of the top 16, and Emory also has another invited swimmer, just outside the top 16. At NCAAs this year, it looks like every single point will be extremely important!
This is epic!! Thanks for scoring this out! Can’t wait to watch!
Given the looming potential roster limit fallout through the House Settlement and seeing the incredible advantage here for the Big Red, I am preparing for the eventual diving arms race everywhere. For the diving apocalypse, I plan on bunkering down with no supplies other than shammy towels and orange slices.
Seems prudent
I laughed too hard at your game plan. Thanks!