So far, in this early part of the season, it looks like a handful of freshman are scoring at a massive SRS level, including on the women’s side, Emory’s Allison Greenway and Elodie Mitchell; and on the men’s side, NYU’s Max Nechydyuk and Teddy McQuad.
Of particular note, Max’s midseason 400 IM time of 3:48 was 3 seconds under last season’s winning NCAA time of 3:51!
Also note that Hannah Fathman's 50 Free is not only faster than her best time - it is 0.10 faster than the time that won nationals in 2023. I did not think Ms. McIntyre's position is in jeopardy. But there is astonishing speed throughout the field.
When you get a moment would you ask your staff to clarify a couple things about the SRS? Does SRS use a rolling average of the most recent seasons fastest swims by event, does it include more than one swim per event per swimmer per year, and if the previous is true do you see a drift in the average and standard deviations? The latter may not be evident given the short history of the SRS but curious minds want to know. Thank you.
Hi Mike, great questions. Here’s some clarification on how the SRS works:
Rolling Average: SRS doesn’t use a true rolling average. Instead, we calculate the average based on the 100 fastest swims in each event from the last five full seasons (2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, and 2024). This approach gives us a robust baseline while accounting for trends over multiple seasons.
Multiple Swims Per Athlete: Yes, the calculation does allow for more than one swim per athlete per event per year. In fact, many of the top athletes contribute multiple swims to the data set, especially in their strongest events.
Drift in Averages and Standard Deviations: We do observe a slight downward drift in the average, likely reflecting an increase in overall performance depth across Division III. As for standard deviations, we haven’t formally tested this yet, but we suspect that any drift would be difficult to distinguish from noise in the data. It’s a great point and something we may explore further.
Thanks for your interest and thoughtful questions.
To be clear about the statement above, multiple swims from one athlete in a single event in a single season do go into the calculation of the average of 100 fastest swims in that event and the standard deviation within that data set.
When you see these calculations of team SRS at this given moment in the season, or you see a total SRS accumulated by an athlete at this moment in the season, that calculation incorporates only the fastest swim by that athlete in that event this season. So for instance, Sarah Kraus of Hope College has multiple swims in the 200 back the generate positive SRS points but when you see her SRS total for the season only her fastest 200 back is in that total. The same is true for the Hope College total.
I think we should wait before proclaiming NYU National Champions. I know you guys just want to do that. However, there are some big swims to come. NESCAC has hardly begun their season and there are still some top D3 Invites in 2 weeks (with 2 more weeks of training and prep to be had) that include Emory, Denison, MIT, Williams, Tufts, Calvin and Wash U men and women, all top 10 or near top 10 teams last season, as well as others. I’m sure Trevor (Miele) would love for the season to end right now but let’s wait until March just for the fun of it.
Also, it seems that the damage the pandemic did to swimming, particularly to the women and D3, has been overcome. From my perspective, we are seeing much faster times compared to the last couple of years. In season swims for the women appear to be up a level so with the 5th years and what amounts to most teams’ best recruiting class being seniors, we are at the peak. The men weren’t damaged quite as much, it seemed, but there are still improvements to the in-season swims. Let’s just say by December 8th, we will have a little better idea of where teams stand.
I agree with most of what you have to say, except maybe the implication that there is an editorial bias towards anointing NYU national champions. We shared an intuition earlier this season that the women would be the next team to win a women's national championship. We think that is plausible and interesting. I don't think anything in our interpretation of the data suggests wishful thinking about a particular outcome.
We neither felt nor shared a similar intuition about the NYU men. I mean, who knows, but that is not what we anticipate.
And I do think that a careful reading of the posts would reveal a few places where we cautioned that the season is young, and big invitationals loom, and more shifts are likely.
I do agree with your point that there is something interesting about the pace of improvement in top times.
I guess this statement, caused my error: “NYU has taken over the top spots on both the women’s and men’s tables.” While factual in this context of the tables, there are other midseasons to consider. That was my main point.
Also, in the past when, in particular, the scoring was spread largely among 10 or more teams, like 2 years ago with the women, the end results were surprising because it becomes a game of depth and maximizing those B final points.
Sure, I was literally referring to the tables I was posting. It was, as we used to say, a positive, not a normative, statement.
There is a bunch of stuff I am doing that I thought would be non-controversial, like publishing updated tables every week, knowing there are more weeks left in the season, and that the tables might change in those coming weeks.
There's definitely been early cheering for NYU, but it gives extra motivation to their competitors to work even harder to topple them. It's fun reading about the latest team and swimmer leading the board and overall building excitement for D3. I'm looking forward to seeing SRS numbers after the next round of mid-season meets.
Does anyone know what happened to The Anchor Leg Podcast? Nothing has been posted this season. We enjoyed their commentary, especially the swimmer interviews.
The guys behind Anchor Leg spent a fair amount of the semester lining up post graduation employment. They anticipate releasing podcasts in the coming months.
Yes, as d3so said above, that is pretty much the story. We will be releasing new episodes soon. I myself was pretty wrapped up in consulting recruitment, Jadon has been working hard on his startup, and Josh and Peter have been busy as well.
Thanks for your continued support of the Anchor Leg. We didn't really know how many people cared until we were bombarded with questions recently, both in-person and over social media, about when we would get back to creating content. Hopefully you all enjoy listening to the podcast as much as we enjoy creating it.
So far, in this early part of the season, it looks like a handful of freshman are scoring at a massive SRS level, including on the women’s side, Emory’s Allison Greenway and Elodie Mitchell; and on the men’s side, NYU’s Max Nechydyuk and Teddy McQuad.
Of particular note, Max’s midseason 400 IM time of 3:48 was 3 seconds under last season’s winning NCAA time of 3:51!
Also note that Hannah Fathman's 50 Free is not only faster than her best time - it is 0.10 faster than the time that won nationals in 2023. I did not think Ms. McIntyre's position is in jeopardy. But there is astonishing speed throughout the field.
It is unreal. The season is just off to an incredibly fast start.
When you get a moment would you ask your staff to clarify a couple things about the SRS? Does SRS use a rolling average of the most recent seasons fastest swims by event, does it include more than one swim per event per swimmer per year, and if the previous is true do you see a drift in the average and standard deviations? The latter may not be evident given the short history of the SRS but curious minds want to know. Thank you.
Hi Mike, great questions. Here’s some clarification on how the SRS works:
Rolling Average: SRS doesn’t use a true rolling average. Instead, we calculate the average based on the 100 fastest swims in each event from the last five full seasons (2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, and 2024). This approach gives us a robust baseline while accounting for trends over multiple seasons.
Multiple Swims Per Athlete: Yes, the calculation does allow for more than one swim per athlete per event per year. In fact, many of the top athletes contribute multiple swims to the data set, especially in their strongest events.
Drift in Averages and Standard Deviations: We do observe a slight downward drift in the average, likely reflecting an increase in overall performance depth across Division III. As for standard deviations, we haven’t formally tested this yet, but we suspect that any drift would be difficult to distinguish from noise in the data. It’s a great point and something we may explore further.
Thanks for your interest and thoughtful questions.
To be clear about the statement above, multiple swims from one athlete in a single event in a single season do go into the calculation of the average of 100 fastest swims in that event and the standard deviation within that data set.
When you see these calculations of team SRS at this given moment in the season, or you see a total SRS accumulated by an athlete at this moment in the season, that calculation incorporates only the fastest swim by that athlete in that event this season. So for instance, Sarah Kraus of Hope College has multiple swims in the 200 back the generate positive SRS points but when you see her SRS total for the season only her fastest 200 back is in that total. The same is true for the Hope College total.
I think we should wait before proclaiming NYU National Champions. I know you guys just want to do that. However, there are some big swims to come. NESCAC has hardly begun their season and there are still some top D3 Invites in 2 weeks (with 2 more weeks of training and prep to be had) that include Emory, Denison, MIT, Williams, Tufts, Calvin and Wash U men and women, all top 10 or near top 10 teams last season, as well as others. I’m sure Trevor (Miele) would love for the season to end right now but let’s wait until March just for the fun of it.
Also, it seems that the damage the pandemic did to swimming, particularly to the women and D3, has been overcome. From my perspective, we are seeing much faster times compared to the last couple of years. In season swims for the women appear to be up a level so with the 5th years and what amounts to most teams’ best recruiting class being seniors, we are at the peak. The men weren’t damaged quite as much, it seemed, but there are still improvements to the in-season swims. Let’s just say by December 8th, we will have a little better idea of where teams stand.
I agree with most of what you have to say, except maybe the implication that there is an editorial bias towards anointing NYU national champions. We shared an intuition earlier this season that the women would be the next team to win a women's national championship. We think that is plausible and interesting. I don't think anything in our interpretation of the data suggests wishful thinking about a particular outcome.
We neither felt nor shared a similar intuition about the NYU men. I mean, who knows, but that is not what we anticipate.
And I do think that a careful reading of the posts would reveal a few places where we cautioned that the season is young, and big invitationals loom, and more shifts are likely.
I do agree with your point that there is something interesting about the pace of improvement in top times.
I guess this statement, caused my error: “NYU has taken over the top spots on both the women’s and men’s tables.” While factual in this context of the tables, there are other midseasons to consider. That was my main point.
Also, in the past when, in particular, the scoring was spread largely among 10 or more teams, like 2 years ago with the women, the end results were surprising because it becomes a game of depth and maximizing those B final points.
Sure, I was literally referring to the tables I was posting. It was, as we used to say, a positive, not a normative, statement.
There is a bunch of stuff I am doing that I thought would be non-controversial, like publishing updated tables every week, knowing there are more weeks left in the season, and that the tables might change in those coming weeks.
There's definitely been early cheering for NYU, but it gives extra motivation to their competitors to work even harder to topple them. It's fun reading about the latest team and swimmer leading the board and overall building excitement for D3. I'm looking forward to seeing SRS numbers after the next round of mid-season meets.
Does anyone know what happened to The Anchor Leg Podcast? Nothing has been posted this season. We enjoyed their commentary, especially the swimmer interviews.
The guys behind Anchor Leg spent a fair amount of the semester lining up post graduation employment. They anticipate releasing podcasts in the coming months.
Yes, as d3so said above, that is pretty much the story. We will be releasing new episodes soon. I myself was pretty wrapped up in consulting recruitment, Jadon has been working hard on his startup, and Josh and Peter have been busy as well.
Thanks for your continued support of the Anchor Leg. We didn't really know how many people cared until we were bombarded with questions recently, both in-person and over social media, about when we would get back to creating content. Hopefully you all enjoy listening to the podcast as much as we enjoy creating it.
Cheers,
Griffin