Making the past we shall inherit
Prelims really matter, dude.
200 Back
Women
Megan Jungers had a dominant swim this morning, winning her 200 Back heat with a 2:01.15, which is nearly a full second faster than the actual 2023 invite time for that event. We consider her the strongest backstroker in the division, and we are kind of curious how far she can take this.
Denison’s Liv Chow and Emory’s Isabel Huang continue to have very good meets, each posting prelim times that are (probably) under the invite threshold for Nationals in March.
Of greater immediate interest, Emory’s Jane Sanderson and Leaya Ma also swam well enough to make the A Final, and Penny Celtnieks made the B Final. Denison does have 6 more finalist in this event, but three are in the C Bracket where point potential is much lower. If this is chalk, then Emory nets 35 points here.
WashU’s Isabella Barrientos represents the Bears in the A Final after swimming an impressive 2:03.20.
With the Women, why are we talking horse-race when yesterday we said it was basically over with Denison holding a 400 point lead? Because we are human. And we have a hard time believing that on the individual level the Emory Eagles and WashU Bears are capable of turning off their competitive impulses.
And it’s like that thing in baseball when you are getting blown-out, you don’t give up and you don’t focus on the scoreboard, you just try to win the next inning. It’s Saturday, a new day, a new inning. Just win the day, have great swims, and live to compete again later in the season. If that is not how the swimmers are thinking, we are going to act like it is, because we don’t know how else to write this post.
Men
200 Back is a ‘wheelhouse’ event for WashU’s Alex McCormick and Kyle Wolford. They are, of course, both A Finalists, with Alex McCormick setting a new pool record with a 1:44.56. That time puts him not far behind division leaders Yurii Kosian and Derek Maas.1
If you want to hear Mr. McCormick and Mr. Wolford talk about their training and prep for this meet, you can check that out here:
In terms of total points haul, we think WashU will come in second in this event, which would be bad news for Denison. Emory had five athletes make the finals and they are all in the A Final.
Denison First-Year Devin Testin could play an outsized role here, given that he is the top seed in the B Final. Under this point structure, winning the B Final is nearly the same as finishing last in the A Final. His race could do a lot to mitigate the damage to the Big Red.
100 Free
Women
When Emory’s Penelope Helm dives in for the A Final she will be Emory’s sole A Final representative and will find herself swimming in a sea of red. Five Denison swimmers made the A Final. Grace Kadlecik, Annie Pfeufer, Avery Vogen, Natalie English and the ageless Phoebe Ferguson are all poised to make this event extraordinarily unpleasant for everyone else.
Men
The stakes of this event are reduced by Indianapolis hogging-up all the spots in the A Final. If you think of an A Final as a contest over 255 points, the Indianapolis Men are set to take about 200 of those points. Emory does have 2 swimmers in the A Final, Caden Bjornstad and Harrison (The Senior Zephyr) Pire, which is two more than Denison. Emory will also be represented by Hayden Tupper in the B Final and Will Kerscher in the C Final.
Christian Narcelles will be Denison’s sole representative outside of the C Final.
WashU is going to win this event. It won’t look like it. They won’t have any representation in the A Final. But they have loaded up that B Final - Austin Bick, Justin Rockaway, Mark Lipkin, Pace Edwards, and Ethan Feng - and they have Danny Sibley in the C Final. They are going to score more points than either Emory or Denison, and Denison is going to lose more ground to Emory.2
200 Breast
Women
Drue Thielking swam a 2:17.39 prelim, which is a fantastic time, good enough for second in the division behind Kenyon’s Gabby Wei. And since she is joined by teammate Esme Wright in the A Final, and Emory’s Fiona Arwood and Katie Cohen are also in this final, this is one of those situations where the order of finish really does matter.
The B Final is interesting in the same way, only Emory has a structural advantage with three swimmers against two from Denison and WashU. Lou Elayi and Churchill’s own Ali Kaiser (Go Bulldogs!) will look to hold on to the top slots in the B Final, with Caroline Zhu in a nice spot to contribute major points.
This format is kind of crazy, there are so many points at stake at the top of the B Final.
Men
Some guy named Jake Meyer swam his prelim in a time that would have been good enough for a silver medal at Nationals last year, 1:56.55. I don’t know, looks like a typo. We’ll have to check on that.
This event brings us back to that quantity issue discussed earlier. Denison actually had a very good prelim. They placed five guys in the A Final. Jake Meyer is joined by Henri Bonnault and Zach Zhao. Those guys are ridiculously fast. But there are only three of them to Denison’s five. If the Emory swimmers take the top three spots in the A Final and the Denison swimmers take the bottom five spots in the A Final, Denison clears 34 more points than Emory.
Denison also has an athlete in the B Final and another athlete in the C Final. This could easily be the Denison Men’s biggest score of the day.
WashU flashed some depth, placing seven swimmers in finals, led by Max Balon, Devin Bunner, and Matthew Larsen.
200 Fly
Women
There are four Denison Women in the A Final, and no representatives from Emory or WashU. Staples Emily Harris and Emma Pritchett will be competing alongside teammates Nikki Barnas and Maria Mrosko. There’s not much more to say about that.
Emory will try to take back some points in the B Final where they have an extra swimmer. If Meredith Teague can match her effort from this morning she might win the B Final (which, in this strange point structure, is not so different from finishing last in the A Final).
Men
We think WashU is going to win this one. They placed Matthew Walker and First-Year Marco Minai in the A Final, and three more in the B Final.
Will be interesting to see what veteran Jeff Echols and First-Year McKee Thorsen can do for Emory, but the math for this event suggests a third place finish for the Eagles behind the Bears and then the Big Red. Denison’s Max Soja, Max Lough, and Dylan Escano will all be in the water for the A Final, with Luke Landis grabbing some more points in the B Final.
400 Free Relay
We are not even going to speculate.
In summary, WashU is already having it’s best day of the meet, the Emory and Denison Men will keep it close, and on the Women’s side we will be treated to a couple of events where order of finish is everything.
What more could we ask for?
Of Kenyon and NYU, respectively.
Barring something crazy like mass DQs, or dramatic, systematic, and comprehensive changes in performance from prelims.
Nick Goudie scratched the 100 free this morning, and Crow Thorsen scratched his individual events both yesterday and today. I hope they’re ok.