A preview of Rowan vs. Salisbury
Among D3 publics, no swim program is more storied than Rowan, and none more ambitious than Salisbury.
Since the start of the season, D3SO has admired the outstanding photography of ellaewingphotos, and we are pleased to be able to feature more of her great work in the coming months.
Backstory
These two teams are familiar with each other, having faced off at the Metropolitan Conference Championships (METS) last season. Additionally, Salisbury Coach Nate Parsley swam for Rowan for four years, through 2012, and then served as the assistant men's and women's swim coach at Rowan from 2013 to 2015.
Last season, the Rowan Men came in third in the Metropolitan Championships, which is a somewhat confusing arrangement, resembling an NJAC-plus conference tournament. As expected, the TCNJ Men won the tournament, and Merchant Marine, fresh off their victory in the Skyline Conference Championships, came in second. (Yes, Merchant Marine, like several other Skyline teams, participated in two different conference championships, which is not uncommon with METS.) On the Women’s side, Rowan finished second, trailing only the formidable Mary Washington.
Follow the footnote: Scoring dual meets vs championship meets, and how to win and lose at the same time.1
What we are watching
In the NJAC (and most conferences), there is a notable disparity in the times across events, with some fastest times only slightly exceeding the median time, while others are outliers, significantly faster than the median.
In the NJAC, the single most impressive conference leading time belongs to Rowan’s Ella Pennington, who went 57.90 in Women’s 100 Back.
And it won’t be much easier on the Men’s side of 100 Back, where Rowan’s Jack Watson holds the fourth highest-disparity event-best time in the NJAC.
Oh, and that high-disparity score on the Women’s 200 Back, yeh, that’s Ella Pennington again.
Women
Basically, I don’t think backstroke events are going to be a lot of fun for Salisbury at this meet. And, at least on the Sea Gulls Women’s side, I don’t know that it matters. Because I don’t anticipate the Sea Gulls Women trailing at any point.
In the distance event (which will probably be an 800 Free, given that they are swimming at Maggs, which means Short-Course Meters), look for Olivia Totaro to finish ahead of the field.2
Expect Alexa Hilty, Delaney Gibbons, Maddy Powell, Samantha Watson, and Lily Griffin to generate a lot of points in the events leading up to the 50 Free, where Emma Schlutt should edge out Rowan’s Laura Jones.
Women’s 100 Free will probably be Rowan’s strongest event of the meet.3 Then the point spread should remain relatively consistent until the 100 Fly, when Salisbury has a chance to blow the doors off.4 Expect a rush of Rowan points in the last two events, but if things went according to plan through the 100 Fly, it just won’t matter.
Men
Life is full of uncertainty. We recognize this, and we probably should assert more firmly that we don’t actually think we are making predictions about what will happen in the real world. Instead, we are telling a story, about something that hasn’t happened yet, based on insufficient data, in a world where there is no such thing as sufficient data, and where probabilities are based on such small sample sizes over such short periods of time that randomness threatens to swamp any guess we might have about future outcomes.
We are just telling stories based on what we see. So here’s a plausible story based on the information we have in front of us.
This meet is going to be nuts.
Seriously, look at this. This is an event-by-event chart of points totals, like the one for the Women (above) except this one looks nothing like the one for the Women.
We didn’t even bother to put error bars on this one because it is going to be so close that the error bars don’t tell you anything.
It may not go like this at all. Imagine the cumulative impact of even a single DQ. But if it basically goes like this, it will be one of the most intense meets any of us have seen all season.
We feel good about Matt Merke taking the distance event. We expect Rowan’s Jack Watson to blow out the field in 100 Back. We like Christopher Knorr in the 200 Fly, and depending on whether Salisbury goes all in on this event, they might get enough points for the first Sea Gulls lead of the meet. It’s possible that 200 Back is a 1-2 from Matthew Arter and Luke Mitchell. If so, the Sea Gulls should be entering the last third of the meet with a lead.
And at that point, for the remaining events, we are expecting something like this:
Figuratively speaking, of course. This sort of behavior has no place in an NCAA sanctioned swim meet and these graphic representations are in no way intended to suggest that violence solves anything.
Just, you know, this meet is going to be nuts.
We don't often discuss it, but dual meet scoring differs significantly from championship meet scoring; it's almost like two different games. In championship meets, for instance, there is very little distinction between finishing first and second. A first-place finish is worth 20 points, while a second-place finish is worth 17 points. In a championship meet A Final, where 118 points are at stake, a 1st place finish represents only 17% of those points (20/118). Conversely, in a dual meet event, where 19 points are up for grabs, first place carries 9 points, accounting for 47% of all points in that event. Since each team can only enter 3 athletes per event, the athlete who finishes first has guaranteed that their team will receive at least 50% of the points.
In championship meets, it's not uncommon for teams to both win and lose the same event simultaneously. For instance, Team 1 wins the event because their one entry in the A Final finishes in first place (earning 20 points). However, Team 1 also loses the event to Team 2 because Team 2 had two athletes in the same A Final, and those athletes finished 7th and 8th (accumulating 12 and 11 points, totaling 23 points for Team 2).
That sort of outcome is not possible in a dual meet.
Leah Gude swam an impressive 1000 Free time last week at Washington College. Salisbury will have to decide whether to use one of her events here and try to score 13+ points in this early event.
Also, and this is awesome, you know how you can personalize your SwimCloud page with a header photo? Check-out Leah Gude. Is that Makena’s Oneloa?
From Rowan, expect the (literal) Jones sisters - Laura and Elizabeth - and Barbara Mora to finish towards the top, with Delaney Gibbons best positioned to play spoiler for Salisbury.
Our simulation says Lily Griffin, Sadie Hebert and Sierra Wakefield sweep this event.