Thursday finals

In women's events, NYU and MIT surpassed expectations, reshuffling our projections.

Did anything that just happened change the projections on who will win?

Yeah, actually. See women’s events below.

Men’s events

We're holding steady on Denison, though strong performances from Kenyon and Chicago, plus a few Denison slips, have tightened the race. Not enough yet to change our predictions—check back tomorrow.

Women’s events

By the end of yesterday, MIT held second place, closely grouped with Denison and NYU, while Kenyon maintained a slim but distinct lead in first place. But a lot changed yesterday, and those changes were more extreme than predicted.

400 IM

NYU +9 points (above what was predicted on the psych sheet)

Thursday was expected to be strong for NYU, but the 400 I.M. delivered more than anticipated. First-year Bethany Spangler surged from 18th into the championship final, finishing 7th 6th, while Calista Lynch won the consolation final, all this giving NYU 9 unexpected extra points.

As they happen, the most consequential things often seem pretty low-key.

100 Fly

MIT +20 points (above what was predicted on the psych sheet)

NYU +8 points (above what was predicted on the psych sheet)

MIT's Sydney Smith, predicted for consolation finals, won the event, while teammate Alex Turvey also moved up to the top final—together boosting MIT by 20 points. NYU’s Reina Gomez jumped from 21st into the championship final (and subtracting a bit of NYU slippage elsewhere), netted the Violets (Bobcats?) 8 unexpected points.

Women's 100 Fly, Prelim Heat 5 was arguably the day's pivotal moment.

200 Free

NYU +18 (above what was predicted on the psych sheet)

Emory +14 (above what was predicted on the psych sheet)

Kaley McIntyre's win was expected (more on that unbelievable swim later today), but Elle Motekaitis improved from her predicted finish, and Aanya Wala jumped from 14th to the championship final. Isabel Oldham and Emery Muller, originally outside the points, reached the consolation final. Emory also had surprises: Natalie Boorjian held steady, while first-year Elodie Mitchell surged from 21st to 11th, and Katie Swan rose from 20th to the championship final.

For Kenyon, the problem isn't under-performance—it's that they met expectations while MIT and NYU exceeded theirs, then added slightly more diving points than expected (NYU +21, MIT +15) which Kenyon cannot match. Friday looks exciting: NYU may place four swimmers in the 200 Fly finals, MIT could have four in the 100 Back, and Kenyon holds the top three seeds in the 100 Breast. If NYU or MIT slip even slightly, expect significant shifts in the simulations—it's still very much a three-way battle (with outside shots still viable for Emory and Denison).

For now, here’s the results of 10,000 simulations based on current points scored and psych sheet projections:

• NYU: 3,879 wins

• MIT: 3,778 wins

• Kenyon: 1,506 wins

• Emory: 544 wins

• Denison: 293 wins

A Monte Carlo simulation uses random sampling to explore uncertain outcomes by running thousands of hypothetical scenarios. Here, each team's current score was added to their projected remaining scores (which were varied randomly by ±30% across 10,000 simulations). We then counted up how many times each team finished first.