A very short preview of some very big meets
Conference Championships for UAA, NESCAC Women, and NCAC. It's kind of a big weekend, you guys.
We have had the experience of trying to preview meets event by event and it has not worked out so great. We don’t have psych-sheets. We don’t know exactly who is going to swim what, or which last minute decisions will affect the overall picture.
So we are going to traffic in generalities. More careful analysis will follow after the weekend.
UAA - Atlanta GA
Plot line: Emory looks unbeatable. Sorry, we know that is not much of a plot line. Emory hosts the meet, which is either appropriate or overkill. What can we say about Emory that we have not already said? They are the deepest, most relentless team in Division III. Of course, they can only send so many swimmers into each conference championship event, so Emory will be leaving some capacity - ie, some of the best swimmers in Division III - on the bench. If the Eagles win by fewer than 300 points on both sides, then something really interesting happened.
Plot line: Chicago makes it interesting. All things considered, Chicago hung in there last year, and both their Men’s and Women’s teams finished second behind Emory. We expect pretty much the same this year. Chicago Men had a solid showing at Nationals last season, and they didn’t really lose much. We would suggest that you keep an eye on Garrett Clasen and Jesse Ssengonzi, but we don’t have a psych sheet so we don’t know if they are swimming. But, if they are, watch out.
Plot line: Fight for second place on the Women’s side. Looks like this is a contest between NYU and Chicago. NYU is good. And NYU’s Women are really good. We consider this a toss-up between the two teams. One loyal reader reminded us that when it is close like this, it can often come down to the diving events, so we will watch those closely.
Plot line: Carnegie Mellon trends up. On the Men’s side, expect Mellon to fight it out with WashU for third place. On the Women’s side, expect CMU to try to leapfrog whoever loses the NYU/Chicago contest. CMU’s Women are especially intriguing, because the six fastest swimmers on the team are First-years, including the oft-mentioned and highly versatile Savannah Xu. They are fast right now, and they promise to just get faster. This is a top 10 program poised to go to the next level.
Plot line: You live in a tough neighborhood. Brandeis and Rochester will have the satisfaction of knowing they are getting steamrolled by some of the very best. Expect a huge effort and some great swims from these athletes. But, there’s no sugarcoating it. They swim in a rough conference. We trust they can handle it. They are adults. They understand what they are up against, and they are going to go out there and compete. Godspeed.
As for Case Western, the problem is a little different. That is a top 20 team. If they swam in the OAC, the Spartans would win the conference on the Women’s side and battle it out with John Carroll on the Men’s side. There are plenty of conferences in which they would run the table. But the Spartans don’t swim in those conferences. They swim in the UAA. We are expecting a 6th place finish…unless…look we don’t think Case Western can catch CMU’s Men, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. A fifth place finish for Case’s Men would be huge for them.
Those we have not already mentioned but who you should look out for…
CMU’s Aleksander Tarczynski in FL and IM
Case Western’s Peter Meng in IM and distance FR
NYU’s Leo Han in BK, FL and IM
NYU’s Connor Vincent in all things non-sprint FR
NYU’s Kaley McIntyre in BK and FR
Brandeis’ Sam Dienstag is just really really good at distance FR
Chicago’s Annabel Olivo swims short distances really fast
WashU’s Austin Bick in FL and FR
WashU’s Ryan Hillery swims long-distances at an impressively quick pace
WashU’s Mason Kelber also does the longer FR thing with impressive skill
WashU’s Alexander McCormick is strong in BK and IM
We went light on the Emory preview because what is the point? We don’t know who is going to swim and they might break some records and also add more B Cuts and on and on. We will tackle it on Monday.
NESCAC Women - Brunswick ME
Bowdoin gets to host the Women’s side of the NESCAC championship. NESCAC apparently runs two different meets on different weekends, first for the Women and then for the Men. Honestly, we struggle to keep up with all the eccentricities of the NESCAC. But we love them anyway.
Speaking of love, why does Bowdoin get the world’s coolest logo?
Here is our best guess of how these teams rank.
Tufts - Some real stars on this team, including Lillian Klinginsmith, who has 5 B Cuts (here using B Cuts as a proxy for fast swims) in 100/200 FR, 100/200 FL, and 200 IM, and her teammate Katelin Isakoff who also has 5 B Cuts - 100/200 FR, 100/200 FL and 500 FR. Madeline Dunn combines a strong 200 Back with a 500 FR and a 1650.
Williams - Not to be outdone, Williams boasts Sophia Verkleeren (who leads D3 in both 100 BK and 200 BK! and has B Cuts in 200 FL, 200 IM and 400IM) and Samantha Kilcoyne (50 FR, 100/200 FL), plus two extraordinary BR specialists - Charlotte Wishnack and Amanda Wager.
Bates - Sophomore Sophie Cassily is really good at swimming, especially BK. Grace Wenger can make major contributions in 100/500 FR. Abigail Gibbons has a strong 100 BR.
Colby - Look for a competitive 50 FR from Ann Tolan.
Bowdoin - First-year Elizabeth Walsh posted very good times in 200 FL, 200 IM and 400 IM.
Wesleyan - Isabella Paez swims a competitive 200 FL.
Amherst
Connecticut College
Middlebury
Hamilton
Trinity (CT)
Amherst, Connecticut College, Middlebury, Hamilton, and Trinity (and Amherst could really finish higher than our ranking suggests), between them have zero B Cuts, so we aren’t singling out particular athletes. Since this is NESCAC, they will get to swim these odd events, like 50 BK and 1000 FR. Good luck and have fun out there.
NCAC - Granville OH
Most years this is Kenyon vs. Denison, with few interruptions from the other attendees. But, not always. Some may recall the days of Angela Newlon, a Depauw swimmer who dominated in numerous events.
Expect a competitive 200 FL from Wooster’s Olivia Bream, and a strong 100 FL from DePauw’s Ben Hilfinger.
Back to Kenyon and Denison.
Plot lines: Are Denison Men in a down year? Always one of the strongest teams in the Division, it feels like Denison is rebuilding on the Men’s side. They don’t lack star power. Richie Kurlich is still there and he is as effective and versatile as anyone, competitive in 50 FR, 100 BR, 100 FL, 200 FL, and 200 IM. Lucas Conrads (distance FR and 400 IM) and Eric Chimes (200 FL, 200 IM, and 400 IM) should score big points. Maxwell Soja is likely to contribute in 200 FL and 400 IM. But the depth is a little iffy.
Plot lines: A More Focused Lords Team Should Dominate Several Events. It probably doesn’t help things for Denison that the Kenyon Lords look stronger (should we say ‘more focused’) than last year (when Denison won a close one). This year, there could be some rough events for Denison, like 100 Back where Yurii Kosian, Spencer Pruett, Daniel Brooks and Djordje Dragojlovic are likely to be hanging out at the wall for a few beats before any Denison swimmers get there. Expect pretty much the same in 200 BK later in the meet (this time minus Mr. Dragojlovic and Mr. Brooks but with the addition of Ethan Manske).
Plot lines: Denison Women Are a Different Story.
Esme Wright holds B Cuts in 200 BR, 200 FR, 200 IM and is - relatively speaking - strongest in 400 IM.
Taryn Wisner and Tara Witkowski are both dominant 500 FR swimmers (500 FR could be an ugly event for Kenyon), with solid mile times, and side specialties - Ms. Wisner has a B Cut worthy 200 FR, and Ms. Witkowski has a B Cut in 400 IM.
Savannah Sargent and Christina Crane are likely to score points in 200 IM and 200 BR, with Ms. Sargent also competitive in 400 IM and Ms. Crane holding a B Cut in 100 BR.
Tara Culibrk is scary in 50/100/200 FR, and Quinn Brown picks up from there, posting great times in 200/500/1650 FR.
Drue Thielking should grab some points in 100/200 BR.
Phoebe Ferguson is a First-year with real talent in FL, and (thankfully) Emma Pritchett re-emerged after an injury hiatus to post a 100 FL B Cut.
This is a tough squad.
Plot lines: Kenyon Ladies should win both medley relays, but this looks close. The medley relays should be a hoot. Ladies Olivia Smith, Jennah Fadely, Celia Ford and Alexandra White are a lethal combination. So much fun to watch.
Denison is primed for a sweep 200 FR and 500 FR, but might get swept in 100 BK, and then pretty much everything else after that is going to be a struggle. The Ladies should win this but it doesn’t look like it will be comfortable, and a poorly timed DQ could be enough to tilt the balance in Denison’s favor.